Another El Niño event has been officially declared, and for many, the memories of 2019 still loom large. That year brought harsh dry conditions, devastating bushfires, and widespread pain throughout the country. Now, as the media begins to craft a narrative of fear around the possibility of a repeat scenario, it’s crucial to understand the implications of this climate phenomenon, particularly its impact on Eastern Australia’s rainfall patterns during the winter and spring seasons.
El Niño, often referred to as the “little boy” or “Christ Child” in Spanish, is a climate pattern that occurs irregularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It’s characterised by the warming of sea surface temperatures, which has far-reaching consequences for global weather patterns. In Australia, El Niño typically leads to a higher likelihood of below-average rainfall.
The map below vividly illustrates the high probability of reduced rainfall in Eastern Australia, a forecast that has already begun to materialise. This decreased precipitation poses significant challenges, especially in the context of the ongoing threat of bushfires. However, the map is a prediction based on probability. It is not a fact and does not necessarily represent what will happen.
While some threats are undeniably real, none perhaps more so than the menace of bushfires. In the years since the catastrophic fires of 2019, the fuel load in our forests and grasslands has quietly amassed once again. To prepare for this looming threat, I myself have begun taking proactive measures such as cleaning out gutters, ensuring an ample water supply, securing backup power sources, and maintaining fire-fighting equipment. The urgency of this preparation became painfully apparent when the air was once again thick with smoke, serving as a stark reminder of the looming danger.
However, just as it makes sense to be prepared for the impending fire season, it’s equally crucial to ready ourselves for a season of diminished rainfall. The relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall patterns is a key factor in understanding this phenomenon. Currently, the SOI stands at -12, a value indicative of El Niño conditions. While rainfall can vary widely for a given SOI, historical data consistently points to El Niño events correlating with decreased rainfall in Eastern Australia.
Drought, at its core, is defined as “not having feed when you expect feed.” The recent floods, while providing a reprieve from drought in some areas, have created their own set of challenges. Flooding can lead to anaerobic conditions in the soil, causing it to harden and become less receptive to subsequent rains. In cases where soil disturbance is feasible, it’s recommended to take action. For situations where this isn’t practical, sound grazing management becomes crucial in nurturing the land and its vegetation back to life.
Transitioning from the extreme of flooding to a shortage of rainfall highlights the need for a multi-faceted approach to drought management. Our Farming and Grazing for Profit Schools teach three phases of drought: Proofing (preparation), Managing in a drought, and Recovering from a drought. Given the current circumstances, the focus has shifted to managing a drought, as it’s too late for extensive preparation.
Regardless of the phase, managing the impacts of drought comes with a cost, whether to livestock, the land itself, the people involved, or the business operations. The primary goal for managers is to mitigate these costs and ensure our country remains “rain ready.”
There are now 3 businesses in Australia which will not even have their cashflow dented. Those are the ones who have been issued with Carbon credits. They can choose when to sell those and maintain cashflow.
Managing People in a Drought:
Managing the Land in a Drought:
Managing Livestock in a Drought:
Managing Business in a Drought:
In Summary
In light of the recent declaration of another El Niño event, memories of the harsh drought and devastating bushfires of 2019 are resurfacing. This blog post emphasises the importance of understanding El Niño and its impact on rainfall patterns in Eastern Australia. While the threat of wildfires looms once again, it’s equally vital to prepare for reduced rainfall.
The article delves into the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and rainfall, with a focus on the historical trends associated with El Niño conditions. It underscores the need for a multi-pronged approach to drought management, emphasizing three key phases: Proofing (preparation), Managing in a drought, and Recovering from a drought.
Effective drought management is imperative, as it comes with costs to livestock, land, people, and businesses. The ultimate goal is to minimise these costs and ensure the country remains “rain ready.” The blog outlines strategies for managing people, land, livestock, and businesses during drought conditions, drawing insights from those who have faced similar challenges.
By following these recommendations, individuals and communities can better prepare themselves to confront the impacts of a changing climate and navigate the complex terrain of drought with resilience and adaptability.
For more information our RCS Australia’s coaching visit our Advisory page.
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Once you have ownership as to why planning is important, the next ingredient is to work out where and how you will do your planning. When you write something down you change your relationship with the content. I cannot emphasise enough the power of getting your thoughts and plans out of your head onto paper or the computer.
The season in SA and Tassie is particularly tight right now with little or no useful rain since early January and a generally failed 2023 spring prior to that. Right now, across southern Australia and much of the eastern NSW, you won’t need to drive far out into the countryside to see cattle and sheep grazing (and lying on) hay and silage trails lined across paddocks.
Martha Lindstad and partner Robert James are farm managers on ‘Karalee’, Enngonia NSW. Both have travelled different paths to being where they are. Martha is originally from Norway, growing up on a three hectare farm before travelling to New Zealand and eventually the Pilbara in Western Australia. It was here that she saw the benefits of sustainable farming for the country and livestock.
The Prince’s RCS mentor, Raymond Stacey, sees a strong future ahead for Simon and Laura. “The Drought Resilient Soils and Landscapes project is about supporting graziers to manage their country and businesses better,” Raymond said. “I see an operation here where they’re working hard on their planning and putting their plans into action to leave their country, business and people in better shape.”
John Kempf, a visionary in regenerative agriculture, founded Advancing Eco Agriculture (AEA) to revolutionise farming practices. A respected expert in biological and regenerative systems, John's mission is to empower farmers worldwide with the knowledge and tools for a healthier, more sustainable food system. AEA's impact extends from healthier soils to thriving communities. John hosts the acclaimed Regenerative Agriculture Podcast, sharing cutting-edge insights from scientists and leading growers on implementing these transformative practices. Prepare to be inspired as John delves into the profound connections between soil health, human health, energy, and economics.
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